Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Question

The development of a therapy that can substantially slow down or reverse the aging process has significant implications for human health, lifespan, and quality of life. As the global population ages, there is a growing interest in understanding the underlying causes of aging and finding ways to counteract its effects.

Despite the potential benefits, developing an effective therapy to slow down or reverse aging presents numerous scientific and technical challenges. These challenges include understanding the complex biology of aging, identifying appropriate biomarkers, and developing interventions that can safely and effectively modulate the aging process.

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2040, a therapy is publicly and credibly documented to have:

Demonstrated a significant reduction in biological age, defined as a minimum of a 10-year reduction in the average biological age of a group of at least 100 human participants. Biological age must be assessed using a composite measure of validated biomarkers that are known to be strongly associated with aging, such as telomere length, DNA methylation, and cellular senescence markers.

Provided substantial evidence of slowing down or reversing the aging process, as measured by a minimum of a 25% improvement in at least two age-related clinical endpoints or physiological functions, compared to baseline measurements. Examples of such endpoints may include cognitive function, cardiovascular health, and immune function.

Demonstrated a favorable safety profile, with no severe adverse events or unacceptable toxicity observed during the course of the study.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the therapy, its mechanism of action, and the study results, published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or presented at a reputable scientific conference.

Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in gerontology, aging research, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.

Raw data and statistical analyses supporting the claims, including before and after measurements of biological age, clinical endpoints, and safety data.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 60% chance (27 traders, as of Mar 29, 2026).