Resolves to YES if the first primary contest of the 2024 Democratic party presidential primary (yes, including caucuses in this definition) is in Iowa. Resolves to NO otherwise. In the event more than 1 contest is held on the same day and one of them is Iowa, resolves 50% PROB.

https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held-e1139ccecdc9

EDIT 6/6/23 - I should note that I will consider the caucus being 

 before other contests (but reported after them) to still count for YES. The date the actual voting (or standing in groups in this case) happens is what is relevant. 

EDIT 10/9/23 - if the caucuses are divorced from the presidential primary voting (which is not something I had anticipated, lol), they won't count for resolution - only the date that corresponds to "election day" for the presidential primary voting. If it's entirely vote by mail, that'd be the deadline for returning ballots.