Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Question

Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.

Resolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 64% chance (406 traders, as of Oct 7, 2026).