Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Question

"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.

The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (29 traders, as of Dec 18, 2025).