The first female US president will be Republican

Question

Resolves Yes if the first female US president is the Republican nominee. Resolves No if the first female US president is the Democratic nominee.

Resolves to 50% if the first female US president is neither Republican nor Democratic.

Succession: this includes a vice president, who becomes president due to death of the incumbent, in which case it resolves Yes/No/50% based on whether they were a Republican/Democratic/other vice presidential nominee or appointee. Later positions in the line of succession are treated similarly.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (55 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).