SCOTUS grants Trump's requested stay before March 1st

'1st':9 'grant':2 'march':8 'request':5 'scotus':1 'stay':6 'trump':3

SCOTUS denies Trump's requested stay before March 1st

'1st':9 'deni':2 'march':8 'request':5 'scotus':1 'stay':6 'trump':3

SCOTUS announces no decision on Trump's requested stay before March 1st

'1st':12 'announc':2 'decis':4 'march':11 'request':8 'scotus':1 'stay':9 'trump':6

On the 13th, the Supreme Court asked Jack Smith to respond to Trump's request to stay his Jan 6th case. They gave him one week to respond, but he responded the next day arguing for them to deny it. Now, a week has passed and we are waiting on SCOTUS to say something.

This market resolves based on whether SCOTUS grants the stay, denies the stay, or announces no decision before March 1st. The "other" option represents unknown unknowns, and should resolve "no" in most cases. 

For the second time this year, the Supreme Court could hear oral arguments on a relatively untested area of constitutional law as it relates to former President Donald Trump and set a landmark precedent that could affect the 2024 presidential race.

Chief Justice John Roberts showed interest on Feb. 13 in reviewing former President Donald Trump’s request the prior day to halt a ruling against his presidential immunity claims in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

Special counsel Jack Smith responded on Feb. 14, telling the court it should deny President Trump’s request.

Earlier this month, three D.C. Circuit judges rejected President Trump’s claim that the doctrine of presidential immunity shielded him from Mr. Smith’s prosecution related to the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

[Disclaimer: These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form until this disclaimer has been edited out of the description. The exact resolution criteria may be updated to better reflect the spirit of the question with the correct legal terminology. Please leave a comment below if you have any suggestions.]

You can find more information on the January 6th case at the following pages: