Who will be the next Republican Speaker/Minority Leader after Mike Johnson?

Question

Mike Johnson is the current Republican Speaker of the House and the #1 Republican in the US House of Representatives.

If the Republicans lost their majority in the House, Johnson would likely become become the Republican Minority Leader, which would then be the position of the #1 Republican under a Democratic Party House.

This market resolves to the name of the next Republican after Mike Johnson to assume the position of either Speaker of the House or Minority Leader.

In the case of a leadership crisis like the one resulting from Speaker McCarthy's removal as speaker, the person appointed to Speaker pro tempore (if anyone) does not count. Only a permanent Republican Speaker or permanent Republican Minority Leader resolves this market.

If you have suggestions for other candidates to add, please leave a comment below.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Steve Scalise  (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect), followed by Jim Jordan (Previous Republican Speaker-Elect) and Mike Johnson Again (after being removed from power, then put back in power) are most likely. See the market for live updates (45 traders, as of Aug 19, 2026).