The debate will occur before either party's national convention

'convent':10 'debat':2 'either':6 'nation':9 'occur':4 'parti':7

Either candidate says "Taylor" or "Swift" in reference to the pop star

'candid':2 'either':1 'pop':11 'refer':8 'say':3 'star':12 'swift':6 'taylor':4

Trump directly addresses Putin or Russia as his audience. (E.g. “If you’re listening…”)

'address':3 'audienc':9 'direct':2 'e.g':10 'listen':14 'putin':4 're':13 'russia':6 'trump':1

Biden blames Trump for scuttling the immigration deal

'biden':1 'blame':2 'deal':8 'immigr':7 'scuttl':5 'trump':3

Trump mentions a Republican primary opponent by name

'mention':2 'name':8 'oppon':6 'primari':5 'republican':4 'trump':1

Trump asserts that his legal case(s) [any] “are unfair” OR says the phrase “witch-hunt”

'assert':2 'case':6 'hunt':17 'legal':5 'phrase':14 'say':12 'trump':1 'unfair':10 'witch':16 'witch-hunt':15

The moderator threatens to mute a mic (or gives a warning of muting)

'give':9 'mic':7 'moder':2 'mute':5,13 'threaten':3 'warn':11

Trump states or hints that he would not concede if he loses the election

'conced':9 'elect':14 'hint':4 'lose':12 'state':2 'trump':1 'would':7

Two independent questions about AI are asked

'ai':5 'ask':7 'independ':2 'question':3 'two':1

No presidential debate between Trump and Biden occurs in 2024

'2024':10 'biden':7 'debat':3 'occur':8 'presidenti':2 'trump':5

Debate is rescheduled or cancelled after a date is first set.

'cancel':5 'date':8 'debat':1 'first':10 'reschedul':3 'set':11

Trump highlights a situation or statistic from Biden's presidency that wouldn't have happened under him

'biden':8 'happen':15 'highlight':2 'presid':10 'situat':4 'statist':6 'trump':1 'wouldn':12

'abraham':5 'accord':6 'someon':1 'talk':2

Candidate takes a sip of water while answering a question

'answer':8 'candid':1 'question':10 'sip':4 'take':2 'water':6

Either candidate says the word “woke” OR the phrase “critical race theory”

'candid':2 'critic':10 'either':1 'phrase':9 'race':11 'say':3 'theori':12 'woke':6 'word':5

Trump states that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if he were President

'invad':8 'presid':13 'russia':4 'state':2 'trump':1 'ukrain':9 'would':5

Biden makes a verbal slip up, which Trump turns into an issue about his age

'age':15 'biden':1 'issu':12 'make':2 'slip':5 'trump':8 'turn':9 'verbal':4

Trump makes a verbal slip up AND Biden makes a joke/remark about age (of either of them)

'age':13 'biden':8 'either':15 'joke/remark':11 'make':2,9 'slip':5 'trump':1 'verbal':4

'joe':6 'say':2 'sleepi':5 'trump':1 'word':4

The word "Russia" is said over ten times by Trump and Biden combined

'biden':12 'combin':13 'russia':3 'said':5 'ten':7 'time':8 'trump':10 'word':2

The word "Democracy" is said 5+ times by Biden

'5':6 'biden':9 'democraci':3 'said':5 'time':7 'word':2

'mention':2 'name':5 'person':4 'sam':6 'someon':1

Either candidate says the name "Obama" (includes Obamacare)

'candid':2 'either':1 'includ':7 'name':5 'obama':6 'obamacar':8 'say':3

One or more of {Paul Christiano, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Ilya Sutskever, Yann Lecun, Elon Musk} mentioned

'altman':10 'amodei':12 'christiano':6 'dario':11 'eliez':7 'elon':17 'ilya':13 'lecun':16 'mention':19 'musk':18 'one':1 'paul':5 'sam':9 'sutskev':14 'yann':15 'yudkowski':8

Trump and/or Biden say the word “vaccine(s)”

'and/or':2 'biden':3 'say':4 'trump':1 'vaccin':7 'word':6

'border':6 'open':5 'phrase':4 'someon':1 'use':2

'bibl':2 'mention':6 'nfts':4 'sneaker':1

Trump says he will legalize recreational cannabis (weed/pot)

'cannabi':7 'legal':5 'recreat':6 'say':2 'trump':1 'weed/pot':8

Stormy Daniels is mentioned explicitly or hinted at

'daniel':2 'explicit':5 'hint':7 'mention':4 'stormi':1

Biden mentions someone in Trump's family, and/or ex-wives, by name

'and/or':8 'biden':1 'ex':10 'ex-wiv':9 'famili':7 'mention':2 'name':13 'someon':3 'trump':5 'wive':11

Joe Biden says "anyways.." more than 5 times

'5':7 'anyway':4 'biden':2 'joe':1 'say':3 'time':8

trump suggests biden is on drugs/uppers and or makes a reference to a drug test that was or should have been administered before the debate

'administ':22 'biden':3 'debat':25 'drug':14 'drugs/uppers':6 'make':9 'refer':11 'suggest':2 'test':15 'trump':1

Biden gets at least 2 people's name wrong. 

'2':5 'biden':1 'get':2 'least':4 'name':8 'peopl':6 'wrong':9

Trump or Biden mention George / Alex Soros

'alex':6 'biden':3 'georg':5 'mention':4 'soro':7 'trump':1

Trump's microphone gets turned off / censored

'censor':7 'get':4 'microphon':3 'trump':1 'turn':5

Either candidate mentions something they did earlier in the day. 

'candid':2 'day':10 'earlier':7 'either':1 'mention':3 'someth':4

Candidate laughs before answering a question

'answer':4 'candid':1 'laugh':2 'question':6

 Biden calls Trump a "Felon" or a "Convicted criminal"

'biden':1 'call':2 'convict':8 'crimin':9 'felon':5 'trump':3

'candid':2 'either':1 'free':4 'say':3 'trade':5

Either candidate mentions climate change (or "climate hoax" or "global warming" or similar)

'candid':2 'chang':5 'climat':4,7 'either':1 'global':10 'hoax':8 'mention':3 'similar':13 'warm':11

Biden references Trump's being on probation

Biden says the phrase "white supremacy" or “white supremacists”

'biden':1 'phrase':4 'say':2 'supremaci':6 'supremacist':9 'white':5,8

Trump is positioned to the right of Biden on stage (from audience POV)

'audienc':12 'biden':8 'posit':3 'pov':13 'right':6 'stage':10 'trump':1

There is a question about Biden's movement towards Trump on China tariffs

'biden':6 'china':12 'movement':8 'question':4 'tariff':13 'toward':9 'trump':10

There is a question about Biden's movement to the right on the southern border

'biden':6 'border':15 'movement':8 'question':4 'right':11 'southern':14

Someone says any of the following: "Obamna" "Biden Blast" "Dark Brandon" "Donald Hump" "soda" or "Obiden"

'biden':8 'blast':9 'brandon':11 'dark':10 'donald':12 'follow':6 'hump':13 'obamna':7 'obiden':16 'say':2 'soda':14 'someon':1

Someone's microphone is muted mid-sentence

'microphon':3 'mid':7 'mid-sent':6 'mute':5 'sentenc':8 'someon':1

Polymarket lowers its odds that Biden will drop out/step down as nominee (reduced odds 24 hrs later)

'24':15 'biden':6 'drop':8 'hrs':16 'later':17 'lower':2 'nomine':12 'odd':4,14 'out/step':9 'polymarket':1 'reduc':13

Biden says/implies that Trump would withhold military aid to Ukraine if elected

'aid':8 'biden':1 'elect':12 'militari':7 'says/implies':2 'trump':4 'ukrain':10 'withhold':6 'would':5

Trump criticizes Biden for giving amnesty to spouses of undocumented migrants

'amnesti':6 'biden':3 'critic':2 'give':5 'migrant':11 'spous':8 'trump':1 'undocu':10

Trump in some way evades having his mic shut off (shouting, walking over to Biden's mic, uses a megaphone etc)

'biden':15 'etc':21 'evad':5 'megaphon':20 'mic':8,17 'shout':11 'shut':9 'trump':1 'use':18 'walk':12 'way':4

“America” is the first word Trump says

'america':1 'first':4 'say':7 'trump':6 'word':5

Polymarket/UMA officially rule that Biden showed "clear signs of senility" during the debate

'biden':5 'clear':7 'debat':13 'offici':2 'polymarket/uma':1 'rule':3 'senil':10 'show':6 'sign':8

'mention':2 'name':6 'someon':1 'woman':4

Biden closes his eyes for 3 or more seconds continuously 

'3':6 'biden':1 'close':2 'continu':10 'eye':4 'second':9

Biden is physically guided off-stage (such as having a hand on his back, locked arms, or otherwise being physically helped to move or maintain balance)

'arm':17 'back':15 'balanc':27 'biden':1 'guid':4 'hand':12 'help':22 'lock':16 'maintain':26 'move':24 'off-stag':5 'otherwis':19 'physic':3,21 'stage':7

Biden stumbles on camera (loses his balance and has to catch himself, or falls to the ground)

'balanc':7 'biden':1 'camera':4 'catch':11 'fall':14 'ground':17 'lose':5 'stumbl':2

Either candidate says the same word 3 times consecutively (e.g. "wait wait wait" or "no no no")

'3':7 'candid':2 'consecut':9 'e.g':10 'either':1 'say':3 'time':8 'wait':11,12,13 'word':6

Trump mentions Clinton(s) or Obama by name

'clinton':3 'mention':2 'name':8 'obama':6 'trump':1

Trump gives someone a new nickname (like "sleepy Joe" or "meatball Ron Desantis")

'desanti':13 'give':2 'joe':9 'like':7 'meatbal':11 'new':5 'nicknam':6 'ron':12 'sleepi':8 'someon':3 'trump':1

Either candidate says the word "Twitter" or "X" in reference to the social network

'candid':2 'either':1 'network':14 'refer':10 'say':3 'social':13 'twitter':6 'word':5 'x':8

'mention':2 'social':4 'trump':1 'truth':3

Either candidate walks off stage before end of debate

'candid':2 'debat':9 'either':1 'end':7 'stage':5 'walk':3

'beau':3 'biden':4 'mention':2 'someon':1

'carter':4 'jimmi':3 'mention':2 'trump':1

Trump mentions having been treated "so badly"

'easi':4 'say':2 'three':5 'time':8 'trump':1

Someone says a word with 15 letters or more

'15':6 'letter':7 'say':2 'someon':1 'word':4

Options in this market resolve based on what occurs during the first presidential debate between, currently scheduled for June 27th on CNN. If the event is rescheduled, this market will still resolve based on the first presidential debate.

You can add your own submissions to this market, but please follow these guidelines:

If no presidential debate ever occurs, all options in this market resolve N/A.