If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?

Question

Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.

If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. If he is elected president, this market resolves YES if average gas prices stay under $4 a gallon between January 2025 and November 2026 and NO if they do not.

Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (300 traders, as of Apr 24, 2026).