America is expected to announce a deal where they lift sanctions and in exchange, they allow free elections. 

If the opposition is elected, this market resolves to YES.

If the international consensus of observers, including the Organization of American States, as described by the mainstream media (The Economist, NYT...) say they consider the election was fair and nonetheless socialism won, this market resolves to YES.

I won't bet. This market will require judgment. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-venezuela-announce-oil-sanctions-deal-tuesday-report-2023-10-16/

The Biden administration and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government are expected to announce a deal on Tuesday that would ease U.S. sanctions on Caracas' oil industry while opening up Venezuela's 2024 presidential election, the Washington Post reported on Monday.