Although it's just a presidential cerimony and just a symbol, Brazil has a tradition of the outgoing president waiting with the president Sash at the Planalto Palace and giving it to the next one at the inauguration day. It's a important symbol of transfer of power. 

In case of Bolsonaro winning a second term, this market will settle to N/A. 

In case of Bolsonaro not winning a second term, this market will settle to YES in case of him attending his successor inauguration and handling him a the presidential sash. Otherwise, this market will settle to NO. 

The next president of Brazil will take office in January 1st 2023.