During the year 2027, will China implement a pandemic lockdown in a Tier 1 city comparable to 2022's lockdown?

Question

This question resolves to yes if there's a zero covid policy lockdown in a major Chinese city that is comparable to Shanghai's 2022 lockdown due to pandemic.

Although it'll require judgement, a comparable one would have a complete ban in going out of home, major industries (semiconductor, electrical vehicles, smartphones...) closing, vídeos of police officers arresting people who ty to leave home, travel bans.

The question nonetheless resolves to yes if they lockdown due to other disease.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (11 traders, as of Nov 20, 2023).