Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Question

I failed to get to 30 in 2025 (https://manifold.markets/LuisPedroCoelho/will-i-publish-30-substacks-in-2025), but will give it a go in 2026.

I will bet 15,000 mana at 75% YES as soon I get the liquidity (in 2025, I bet 5,000 and will lose that).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if I publish at least 30 unique Substack posts during the calendar year 2026 (January 1, 2026 - December 31, 2026).

A post counts if it is published on my personal Substack (https://luispedro.substack.com/), but not on any other venue.

The market will resolve NO if:

Fewer than 30 posts are published during 2026

I delete my Substack account before the end of 2026

Posts are published but later deleted, bringing the total below 30

Considerations

This requires an average of 2.5 posts per month

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (37 traders, as of Nov 11, 2026).