Who will be the top 10 Chess players at the end of 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on FIDE's monthly published "Top 100 Players" list for classical chess. The resolution will use the first official FIDE rating list published in 2027.

Each answer resolves YES if that player appears in the top 10 of the FIDE classical ratings at that time, and NO otherwise. Only active players (as per FIDE's definition) will be considered. Check the official FIDE ratings at  https://ratings.fide.com

Background

FIDE governs international chess competition and publishes monthly rankings of the top 100 players based on classical time control ratings. The Elo rating system is used.

Considerations

Rankings fluctuate monthly based on classical tournament results. Players may take extended breaks from competition, affecting their rating trajectory. Sites like https://2700chess.com/ compute "live ratings" which are an indication of how players are performing in between official ratings lists.

Answers were seeded with top 20 at market creation. I will bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Magnus Carlsen, followed by Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Sep 18, 2026).