Will the risk of death during Artemis II reach 20%?

Question

There are several markets asking whether any of the astronauts on NASA’s Artemis II mission will not survive it, but they currently seem a bit higher (1-in-20) than one might expect.

To maybe squeeze more precision out of them, this market will resolve YES if, during the mission, an average of the largest such markets reaches a 20% chance of a death (either directly or implied). This must happen due to real mission events, not because of market manipulation (in my estimation). I will not bet on this market or any market that may count toward resolution.

Feel free to post relevant markets in the comments.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ChuckBaggettChuckBaggettW/will-there-be-a-lethal-disaster-dur?r=TG9nYW5UdXJuZXI)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (6 traders, as of Mar 15, 2026).