Will Tumblr be fediblocked by a majority of the top 10 Mastodon instances by MAU, 6 months after implementation?

Question

Note: this is conditional on Tumblr implementing ActivityPub support. If that doesn't happen before close, this market will resolve N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 29% chance (18 traders, as of Aug 20, 2024).