At the end of 2024, Wikipedia will say there were this many total people killed by the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Question

Note: if it's changing a lot at that time, I will take whatever it stablizes to. I will do my best not to accept a vandalized result

If there is not a definitive answer, I will resollve to my best judgement given the infformation presented. I will describe the procedure before resolving and give chance for feedback, but this will depend on its content at that time, so is intenionally undefined for now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.8154235076521538 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Dec 18, 2024).