Trump mentions that Haley should drop out

Haley wins (most votes, not delegates) in at least one state

'deleg':6 'haley':1 'least':9 'one':10 'state':11 'vote':4 'win':2

'mention':2 'sale':5 'sneaker':4 'trump':1

Trump posts at least 10 different posts on Truth Social including photos of himself (photos within a graphic, link etc. count)

'10':5 'count':21 'differ':6 'etc':20 'graphic':18 'includ':11 'least':4 'link':19 'photo':12,15 'post':2,7 'social':10 'trump':1 'truth':9 'within':16

'biden':1 'mention':2 'swift':4 'taylor':3

Manifold has an outage lasting longer than 5 minutes (as reported by users)

'5':8 'last':5 'longer':6 'manifold':1 'minut':9 'outag':4 'report':11 'user':13

Biden receives in every state more than 90% of the votes

'90':8 'biden':1 'everi':4 'receiv':2 'state':5 'vote':11

@mattyb wears his Marianne campaign shirt on ST and posts a photo

'campaign':5 'mariann':4 'mattyb':1 'photo':12 'post':10 'shirt':6 'st':8 'wear':2

At least one state will have fewer than 85% of votes counted before March 6th, 20:00 PST

'00':17 '20':16 '6th':15 '85':9 'count':12 'fewer':7 'least':2 'march':14 'one':3 'pst':18 'state':4 'vote':11

Trump comments on Biden's age or physical abilities

'abil':9 'age':6 'biden':4 'comment':2 'physic':8 'trump':1

At least one major candidate (Biden, Trump, Haley) experiences issues with their microphone during their speech

'biden':6 'candid':5 'experi':9 'haley':8 'issu':10 'least':2 'major':4 'microphon':13 'one':3 'speech':16 'trump':7

Trump or/and Biden post an AI-generated image on their social media accounts (with a note that it is AI-generated)

'account':14 'ai':7,22 'ai-gener':6,21 'biden':3 'generat':8,23 'imag':9 'media':13 'note':17 'or/and':2 'post':4 'social':12 'trump':1

538 shows Haley at above 16.00% at any point in time in the national Republican primary polls ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ )

'/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/':20 '16.00':6 '538':1 'haley':3 'nation':14 'point':9 'poll':17 'primari':16 'projects.fivethirtyeight.com':19 'projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/':18 'republican':15 'show':2 'time':11

Marianne Williamson receives at least 5% of votes in one state

'5':6 'least':5 'mariann':1 'one':10 'receiv':3 'state':11 'vote':8 'williamson':2

Trump, Biden or Haley eat a local delicacy on stage

'biden':2 'delicaci':8 'eat':5 'haley':4 'local':7 'stage':10 'trump':1

Trump provides a serious hint about who his VP nominee will be

'hint':5 'nomine':10 'provid':2 'serious':4 'trump':1 'vp':9

An R or D candidate drops out (Phillips, Williamson, Biden, Trump or Haley)

'biden':10 'candid':5 'd':4 'drop':6 'haley':13 'phillip':8 'r':2 'trump':11 'williamson':9

'biden':1 'campaign':2 'post':3 'tiktok':5

All 16 primaries are called by the media before the end of the day 

'16':2 'call':5 'day':14 'end':11 'media':8 'primari':3

At least one California primary is called by the media before the polls close 

'california':4 'call':7 'close':14 'least':2 'media':10 'one':3 'poll':13 'primari':5

All presidential primaries are called by the media within one hour of their respective polls closing 

'call':5 'close':16 'hour':11 'media':8 'one':10 'poll':15 'presidenti':2 'primari':3 'respect':14 'within':9

Bitcoin (BTC) rises over Super Tuesday (started at $67353.40) (higher on March 6th at 06:00 PST than on March 5th at 00:00 EST, according to Google Finance)

'00':16,23,24 '06':15 '5th':21 '67353.40':9 '6th':13 'accord':26 'bitcoin':1 'btc':2 'est':25 'financ':29 'googl':28 'higher':10 'march':12,20 'pst':17 'rise':3 'start':7 'super':5 'tuesday':6

S&P 500 closes on Super Tuesday (March 5th) lower than March 4th (according to Google Finance)

'4th':13 '500':3 '5th':9 'accord':14 'close':4 'financ':17 'googl':16 'lower':10 'march':8,12 'p':2 'super':6 'tuesday':7

Phillips, Williamson, Biden, Trump or Haley sings on stage

'biden':3 'haley':6 'phillip':1 'sing':7 'stage':9 'trump':4 'williamson':2

Someone holds up a chainsaw, a photo of a chainsaw, etc. in Trump's audience

'audienc':15 'chainsaw':5,10 'etc':11 'hold':2 'photo':7 'someon':1 'trump':13

Trump, Biden, or Haley say the word "Fuck" or any variation of it

'biden':2 'fuck':8 'haley':4 'say':5 'trump':1 'variat':11 'word':7

Trump mentions two or more of the following: Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Letita James, John Lewis, Jeb Bush, Sam Altman, Jerma985, or The Flying Purple People Eater.

'altman':20 'barack':11 'bush':18 'eater':27 'fli':24 'follow':8 'jame':14 'jeb':17 'jerma985':21 'john':15 'letita':13 'lewi':16 'mention':2 'nanci':9 'obama':12 'pelosi':10 'peopl':26 'purpl':25 'sam':19 'trump':1 'two':3

Someone wearing a hat is on seen on stage during a victory/concession speech. 

'hat':4 'seen':7 'someon':1 'speech':13 'stage':9 'victory/concession':12 'wear':2

Any single option other than Biden receives more than 10% of the votes in a Democratic contest.

'10':10 'biden':6 'contest':17 'democrat':16 'option':3 'receiv':7 'singl':2 'vote':13

Candidates visit 2 of the same states (Biden, Trump, Haley) [see comments]

'2':3 'biden':8 'candid':1 'comment':12 'haley':10 'see':11 'state':7 'trump':9 'visit':2

Dean Phillips gets second place in all states where he's on the ballot

'ballot':14 'dean':1 'get':3 'phillip':2 'place':5 'second':4 'state':8

Every voting state is visited by at least one of the candidates on their respective primary ballots

'ballot':17 'candid':12 'everi':1 'least':8 'one':9 'primari':16 'respect':15 'state':3 'visit':5 'vote':2

Exactly two of {Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont} have the same third place candidate on the republican side

'candid':12 'exact':1 'oklahoma':4 'place':11 'republican':15 'side':16 'texa':5 'third':10 'two':2 'vermont':6

Nikki Haley gets/has Secret Service protection

'gets/has':3 'haley':2 'nikki':1 'protect':6 'secret':4 'servic':5

Kamala Harris visits at least 2 distinct states

'2':6 'distinct':7 'harri':2 'kamala':1 'least':5 'state':8 'visit':3

Vermont is the lowest margin state (by %) of any Republican contest that day

'contest':11 'day':13 'lowest':4 'margin':5 'republican':10 'state':6 'vermont':1

Utah is the lowest margin state (by %) of any Republican contest that day

'contest':11 'day':13 'lowest':4 'margin':5 'republican':10 'state':6 'utah':1

Protesters removed from a Biden rally/event

'biden':5 'protest':1 'rally/event':6 'remov':2

'counti':6 'francisco':5 'haley':2 'nikki':1 'san':4 'win':3

News report of significant number of robocalls with AI-generated voice

'ai':10 'ai-gener':9 'generat':11 'news':1 'number':5 'report':2 'robocal':7 'signific':4 'voic':12

American Samoa won by candidate that is not Trump/Biden [the Republican caucus takes place on March 8th and will therefore be ignored, for this question only the Democratic caucus matters]

'8th':17 'american':1 'candid':5 'caucus':12,29 'democrat':28 'ignor':22 'march':16 'matter':30 'place':14 'question':25 'republican':11 'samoa':2 'take':13 'therefor':20 'trump/biden':9 'won':3

Tornado reported in any Super Tuesday state

'report':2 'state':7 'super':5 'tornado':1 'tuesday':6

Judge orders voting to stay open past original close time in any precinct

'close':9 'judg':1 'open':6 'order':2 'origin':8 'past':7 'precinct':13 'stay':5 'time':10 'vote':3

'biden':1 'cone':7 'cream':6 'eat':3 'ice':5 'shown':2

Phone interview with a candidate between 5 PM and 11 PM Eastern on a major news network

'11':10 '5':7 'candid':5 'eastern':12 'interview':2 'major':15 'network':17 'news':16 'phone':1 'pm':8,11

New endorsement is announced by a candidate

'announc':4 'candid':7 'endors':2 'new':1

[likely n/a; NBC shows that they don't have enough data] Trump gets more black votes than Haley in NC based on exit polls from NBC News as reported on their website

'base':21 'black':15 'data':11 'enough':10 'exit':23 'get':13 'haley':18 'like':1 'n/a':2 'nbc':3,26 'nc':20 'news':27 'poll':24 'report':29 'show':4 'trump':12 'vote':16 'websit':32

CNN's John King draws a circle on any part of a US state while at his map

'circl':7 'cnn':1 'draw':5 'john':3 'king':4 'map':18 'part':10 'state':14 'us':13

A journalist, correspondent, panelist, or interviewee on CNN's election night coverage wears a yellow, pink, purple, or orange tie. 

'cnn':8 'correspond':3 'coverag':12 'elect':10 'interviewe':6 'journalist':2 'night':11 'orang':19 'panelist':4 'pink':16 'purpl':17 'tie':20 'wear':13 'yellow':15

'biden':1 'least':4 'lose':2 'one':5 'race':6

Biden will be unable to finish a speech and end it early [see comments]

'biden':1 'comment':14 'earli':12 'end':10 'finish':6 'see':13 'speech':8 'unabl':4

A candidate will say or post the name of a location referenced in "The Bad Touch" by The Bloodhound Gang (Texas, Egypt, Pacific, South Seas, FedEx, or Waffle House)

'bad':15 'bloodhound':19 'candid':2 'egypt':22 'fedex':26 'gang':20 'hous':29 'locat':11 'name':8 'pacif':23 'post':6 'referenc':12 'say':4 'sea':25 'south':24 'texa':21 'touch':16 'waffl':28

'counti':4 'fairfax':3 'haley':1 'virginia':5 'win':2

'counti':4 'haley':1 'massachusett':6 'win':2

Biden wins all Democratic delegates up for grabs 

'biden':1 'deleg':5 'democrat':4 'grab':8 'win':2

Haley says “Mark my words” in a speech or tweet

'haley':1 'mark':3 'say':2 'speech':8 'tweet':10 'word':5

An elected official who previously endorsed another candidate switches their endorsement to Trump

'anoth':7 'candid':8 'elect':2 'endors':6,11 'offici':3 'previous':5 'switch':9 'trump':13

Dean Phillips does not get >5% (no rounding) in any state

'5':6 'dean':1 'get':5 'phillip':2 'round':8 'state':11

A candidate is shown playing a sport with supporters

'candid':2 'play':5 'shown':4 'sport':7 'support':9

Haley’s final vote share within 5 points (no rounding) of Trump in a state

'5':7 'final':3 'haley':1 'point':8 'round':10 'share':5 'state':15 'trump':12 'vote':4 'within':6

Wolf Blitzer says "OMG" during live election coverage 

'blitzer':2 'coverag':8 'elect':7 'live':6 'omg':4 'say':3 'wolf':1

'000':6 '200':5 'desanti':2 'get':3 'ron':1 'vote':7

'000':6 '100':5 'desanti':2 'get':3 'ron':1 'vote':7

Bernie Sanders appears with either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris

'appear':3 'berni':1 'biden':7 'either':5 'harri':10 'joe':6 'kamala':9 'sander':2

Steve Kornacki is live on MSNBC while not wearing a necktie for any amount of time

'amount':14 'kornacki':2 'live':4 'msnbc':6 'neckti':11 'steve':1 'time':16 'wear':9

Former candidate is interviewed by CNN, MSNBC, or Fox

'candid':2 'cnn':6 'former':1 'fox':9 'interview':4 'msnbc':7

At least 5 users burn their phone (ballot) in the Manifold's Fantasy President election (poll for this market: https://manifold.markets/Lion/manifolds-fantasy-president-will-mi)

'/lion/manifolds-fantasy-president-will-mi)':22 '5':3 'ballot':8 'burn':5 'elect':15 'fantasi':13 'least':2 'manifold':11 'manifold.markets':21 'manifold.markets/lion/manifolds-fantasy-president-will-mi)':20 'market':19 'phone':7 'poll':16 'presid':14 'user':4

Any candidates penis slips out of the trousers

🏒The Edmonton Oilers will beat the Boston Bruins in an NHL game 🏒

'beat':5 'boston':7 'bruin':8 'edmonton':2 'game':12 'nhl':11 'oiler':3

Trump or Haley compares Joe Biden with Jimmy Carter

'biden':6 'carter':9 'compar':4 'haley':3 'jimmi':8 'joe':5 'trump':1

🏒The Florida Panthers will beat the New Jersey Devils in an NHL game 🏒

'beat':5 'devil':9 'florida':2 'game':13 'jersey':8 'new':7 'nhl':12 'panther':3

Trump tweets on X (former: Twitter) (He hasn't done so since Aug 2023)

'2023':14 'aug':13 'done':10 'former':5 'hasn':8 'sinc':12 'trump':1 'tweet':2 'twitter':6 'x':4

'mention':2 'swift':4 'taylor':3 'trump':1

Trump posts a link to any betting or forecasting platform

'bet':7 'forecast':9 'link':4 'platform':10 'post':2 'trump':1

'biden':1 'haley':4 'mention':2 'nikki':3

[Warning: This decision will be made based on my (@Lion) own judgment and is highly subjective] Trump mock Biden in any form

'base':7 'biden':19 'decis':3 'form':22 'high':15 'judgment':12 'lion':10 'made':6 'mock':18 'subject':16 'trump':17 'warn':1

'legal':4 'mention':2 'trial':5 'trump':1

'biden':1 'legal':5 'mention':2 'trial':6 'trump':3

At least 2 people participate in Lion's Souper Tuesday https://manifold.markets/Lion/short-fuse-will-at-least-three-user

'/lion/short-fuse-will-at-least-three-user':13 '2':3 'least':2 'lion':7 'manifold.markets':12 'manifold.markets/lion/short-fuse-will-at-least-three-user':11 'particip':5 'peopl':4 'souper':9 'tuesday':10

Score Sums of UEFA Champions League Matches > #of States Won by Haley

'champion':5 'haley':12 'leagu':6 'match':7 'score':1 'state':9 'sum':2 'uefa':4 'won':10

Trump secures the nomination (>=1215 delegates in total)

'1215':5 'deleg':6 'nomin':4 'secur':2 'total':8 'trump':1

Trump ends up with > 1000 total delegates

'1000':5 'deleg':7 'end':2 'total':6 'trump':1

'50':5 'deleg':6 'get':3 'haley':2 'nikki':1

Someone in Trump's audience wears golden sneakers

'audienc':5 'golden':7 'sneaker':8 'someon':1 'trump':3 'wear':6

Phillips, Biden or Trump mentions the Roman Empire

'biden':2 'empir':8 'mention':5 'phillip':1 'roman':7 'trump':4

The Manifold Super Tuesday Tournament will be won by an underdog (everyone expect @Joshua, @SemioticRivalry, @MarkHamill or @nikki) https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/-tet-2024-who-will-win-super-tuesda

'/danman314/-tet-2024-who-will-win-super-tuesda':21 'everyon':12 'expect':13 'joshua':14 'manifold':2 'manifold.markets':20 'manifold.markets/danman314/-tet-2024-who-will-win-super-tuesda':19 'markhamil':16 'nikki':18 'semioticrivalri':15 'super':3 'tournament':5 'tuesday':4 'underdog':11 'won':8

Steve Garvey advances to the California Senate general election (and the race is called by noon PST on March 6th)

'6th':20 'advanc':3 'california':6 'call':14 'elect':9 'garvey':2 'general':8 'march':19 'noon':16 'pst':17 'race':12 'senat':7 'steve':1

The NYT needle projects that someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump will win a presidential primary for any amount of time

'amount':21 'biden':10 'donald':12 'joe':9 'needl':3 'nyt':2 'presidenti':17 'primari':18 'project':4 'someon':6 'time':23 'trump':13 'win':15

Trump sends a "Truth" on Truth Social containing the word "birdbrain"

'birdbrain':11 'contain':8 'send':2 'social':7 'trump':1 'truth':4,6 'word':10