If RFK Jr. drops out, will Harris' lead in national polls (RCP) increase one week later?

Question

This question resolves as YES if the percentage difference between Harris and Trump increases 7 days after RFK Jr. drops out compared to the day RFK Jr. drops out. It also resolves YES if Harris loses her lead beforehand, but the difference becomes smaller within that week (e.g., Trump +1.0% on the drop-out date -> Trump +0.5% one week after the drop-out). If Harris loses her lead, I will rephrase the question.

This question resolves as NO if the percentage difference remains the same or if Trump gains more percent relative to Harris.

This question resolves as N/A if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not drop out and and continues spreading his conspiracy theories or if Trump or Harris drop out before RFK.

The official date of RFK Jr.'s drop-out will be used (not based on rumors, etc.). I will close this question two days after RFK officially drops out. In the event of his death, that date will be used instead.

Reference is RCP and I'll use the displayed average rounded on 0.1%.

[edit: Reference really is the linked two-way polling between Harris and Trump and NOT the 5-way/any other polling]

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Sep 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.