Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Question

This will resolve YES as soon as the Clay Mathematics Institute makes a definitive indication that a solution is correct, provided that it was published by the end of the day GMT December 31, 2030. It will resolve NO at any point after the end of 2030 at which all claimed solutions published before EOD 12/31/2030 have been refuted.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 43% chance (34 traders, as of Jul 4, 2026).