Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Question

Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.

Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Acquisition Criteria:

The market will resolve YES if Greenland becomes a US territory or if the US government or one of its constituent agencies acquires any portion of Greenland.

This acquisition must involve government ownership of the land, not merely private or academic entities (for example, a science lab established by Harvard University does not qualify).

Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator emphasizes that this market is about whether Greenland or a meaningful portion of it becomes part of America, not about minor acquisitions like a single building or small plot of land. The resolution will be obvious when it happens - this is about substantial territorial acquisition, not edge cases involving minimal land or property ownership.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 9% chance (1,261 traders, as of Aug 3, 2026).