Currently, the best known scaling law for language models comes from 

This market will resolve YES if OpenAI improve on this scaling law when training GPT-4, ie get better performance (in terms of crossentropy) per training FLOP. It will resolve NO if they get the same performance or worse.

If GPT-4 is multimodal and gets  better performance per FLOP on pure language modeling this market resolve YES.

AI Alignment 

Technology

AI Safety