Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?

Question

I have a passport book issued in NYC. I'm a white trans woman living near NYC. I pass quite well.

My age: about 30-35 years old

Date of issue: Late 2018

Date of expiry: Late 2028

Sex listed on passport: F

Sex on my drivers license: F

Assigned sex at birth == Sex on birth certificate (blue state): still M

I transitioned in 2018.

The market resolves YES if:

I receive notice that my passport is revoked  (or will be revoked) from the US Department of State or similar official, OR

My passport is no longer sufficient to confirm my identity (e.g. in online government sites, for police, for travel -- for example, getting denied entry at an airport because of some problem with my passport counts)

If I choose to renew my passport before Jan 2028, I will resolve N/A. If I choose to renew after Jan 2028, I will resolve NO, assuming I'm still able to use it.

Whether or not I'm able to renew has no bearing on this market. This market is about proactive revocation.

Related markets:

For whether this practice will be widespread

For whether passports will be phased out gradually (unrenewable, not revoked)

For whether this will translate into increased widespread physical violence

Arbitrage opportunities:

What will Trump do in his second term?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (20 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).