SEC has charged Coinbase with 5 different offenses, including operating an unregistered securities exchange, and offering unregistered securities to the public. 

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-102.pdf

https://slate.com/technology/2023/06/coinbase-binance-sec-cryptocurrency-securities-law-crackdown.html

Resolves YES if the SEC wins any of the 5 charges it filed against Coinbase, or if Coinbase settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession, for example, a payout greater than $50 million and an agreement to not sell to US consumers, or something along those lines. 

Since this case involves editorial judgment on the "substantial concession" provision, I won't bet in the market. Feel free to ask questions to help narrow down what "substantial" means.

The feds sued Coinbase and Binance. It could tame the entire industry.