Will there be 1 billion famine deaths during the decade 2023 through 2032?

Question

Peter Zeihan claims in a presentation in 2022-Dec:

"Starting some time next year, we are going to have food shortages that are multi-continential.  And they are probably going to expand to the point that we are going to lose a billion people over the next decade.  The supply chain system just takes too long to adapt."

Will we see this?

Resolves "Yes" if at the end of 2032, there is credible reporting or data, showing that 1 billion people died from famine during the decade from 2023-Jan to 2032-Dec, inclusively.

This market is partly a non-exclusive "bet" with @Bioliberalism, and I will be placing trades on this market.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (22 traders, as of Apr 5, 2026).