Now that Joe Biden has begun running for the 2024 Democratic Nomination, will he be the nominee?

Question

Resolves N/A if he announces that he's not running (UPDATE: since he has announced that he is running this market will not resolve N/A based on this clause). Otherwise resolves based on who is nominated at the 2024 DNC.

Technically the following two markets should tell us the implied odds for this market:

[markets](as of market creation 0.74/0.79 ≈ 0.93)

However, since the implied odds have fluctuated substantially, I'm creating a separate market which should (in theory) be more stable.

See Also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/if-joe-biden-is-the-2024-nominee-wi)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Aug 21, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.