Will there be a new ongoing major war (10,000+ deaths) listed by Wikipedia by the 4th of July, 2024?

Question

If an ongoing major war with a "start of conflict" in 2023 or 2024 is added to the Wikipedia List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts after this market is created and before market close, resolves yes. The war in Sudan is already on the list as of market creation, and so does not count for this market.

[image]Any Wikipedia vandalism will be disregarded. The new ongoing war can be one of the ongoing conflicts with <10,000 deaths as of market creation, if it is promoted to a proper war (and has a start of conflict in 2023 or 2024).

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jul 13, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.