The U.S. federal government maintains a highly secretive program that is specifically about UAPs, regardless of if it is a "UAP crash retrieval and reverse engineering program"

The U.S. federal government maintains a highly secretive program that could specifically be described as a "UAP crash retrieval and reverse engineering program"

The U.S. federal government possesses or has possessed multiple craft of non-human origin

The U.S. federal government possesses or has possessed corpses of deceased pilots (of craft of non-human origin)

White-collar crime took place to conceal at least one highly secretive U.S. Government UAP program

At least one person has been killed to conceal a highly secretive U.S. government UAP program

Benito Mussolini's government recovered a "non-human" spacecraft in 1933

A private defense contractor, such as Lockeed Martin, possesses or has possessed craft of of non-human origins

Technology of non-human origin has been reverse engineered 

There is a highly secretive UAP-related program which has existed since at least the Eisenhower Administration, which only some Presidents were trusted enough to be briefed on

There is a UAP-related "shadow government" that is responsible for a large portion of why the defense department can't account for large amounts of spending over the decades

The 2024 NDAA ordered the creation of a UAP Records Collection of all government/contractor records related to UAPs/NHI. In 2023, many such highly secret records were destroyed so they would not have to be turned over in 2024 per the NDAA.

This is a market about David Grusch's claims about an alleged secret government program. 

Grusch claims that the U.S. federal government maintains a highly secretive UFO retrieval program and possesses multiple spacecraft of non-human origin as well as corpses of deceased pilots. Grusch also claims there is "substantive evidence that white-collar crime" took place to conceal UFO programs and that he had interviewed officials who said that people had been killed to conceal the programs.

This is an independent multiple choice market, options can resolve yes or no by themselves. An option resolves yes if I am reasonably confident that it is more than 50% likely to be true, before January 1st 2025. 

In legal terms, think of this as a civil case rather than a criminal one. I only need to think that a preponderance of the evidence supports a claim, rather than being sure it is true beyond a reasonable doubt.

I will not trade in this market after betting options down to reasonable base rates. If my judgement is contested I will delegate judgement to another unbiased moderator or a group of moderators.

I may edit these exact resolution rules to better align with the spirit of the question, and am open to suggestions. I may also make minor edits to the options to make it more clear what claim they are describing and what would and would not count. I am also happy to hear suggestions of  more claims to add.

For my own bias, I am very skeptical of claims about non-human intelligence but an open to the possibility and intrigued by the mystery of UAPs. I am entirely open to the possibility of mundane government fraud, but very skeptical of anyone having been killed to cover up mundane fraud. 

My hope is that a market that separates the specific claims made by Grusch and which only requires something to seem more likely than not will encourage people to break down what parts of his testimony are likely to be true and what parts are likely to be false.