Resolves to the single earliest period in which something surprising happens, per the criteria below.

That market uses very specific criteria to be more objective, this market does not. This market resolves when I personally decide that something big and surprising has finally happened on Manifold, after quite a while of nothing happening. 

This is a higher bar, as most of the Somethings Happening in the main market have ended up being kind of anticlimactic like 2023 being declared the hottest year or Destiny finalizing his divorce.

To count for this market, something has to be:

Here are the previous things that would have counted for this market, if it had existed before:

Upcoming, scheduled events will probably not count. I doubt the Superbowl will count, or the Oscars. Trump getting convicted might count. The US election will probably not count unless Manifold has one candidate heavily favored to win and then they lose. 

These criteria will almost certainly be updated, and I am open to suggestions of how to do so.

I may add more months, which will split off from Other. But hopefully something surprising finally happens before then.