Trump wins 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

Trump wins 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

Trump loses 2024 AND the United States abandons its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

Trump loses 2024 AND the United States does not abandon its policy of "strategic ambiguity" by 2028

Live-updating visualization of the conditional probabilities and correlation coefficient:

The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets: