Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

At least 5 people simultaneously chant "rationalussy"

At least four meetup regulars from my local rationalist group attend (including me)

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

@jskf sings a song (full song, on stage) at the karaoke event

The conference's events average 15 minutes or more behind schedule, as judged by @Joshua

According to a poll asking if they enjoyed the conference with YES/NO/No opinion, a plurality of Manifold users respond YES

At least 350 people buy a ticket to attend at least one event in-person

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Arm-Wrestling tournament with at least 8 participants 

There is a scheduled orgy on every day of the conference 

Someone gives away 100+ folded paper cranes that have a message inside

3 people kiss each other at once who have not kissed each other before

>5 people interrupt a talk by standing up and singing at least 30 seconds of "Do You Hear the People Sing?"

During their talk, a speaker eats a spoonful of yogurt

During their talk, a speaker drinks from a Capri Sun

During their talk, a speaker mentions the quality of the Lighthaven bidets

Freestyle rap battle with at least 3 participants about who has the bigger ballpit at their house

At least 10 men wear black lipstick for >1 hour

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

At least 5 markets involving single chess matches played at Manifest

Someone goes all in with 27o in the poker tournament

Someone proposes with a ring (should be legit between a couple that were already together but not yet engaged)

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

At least 20 people mention these prop bets to me in person 

Tumbles somehow gets a major financial bailout (>1 million mana)

Conditional on Krantz making it to the conference, he will give a presentation that lowers Yud's pdoom to below 10%.

Someone is convinced to transition (their gender) 

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana) 

Someone eats more than 6000 calories in one day

Conditional on Aella taking a survey created by Krantz (less than 500 true/false questions), she will gift Krantz $100k dollars.

Krantz is convinced to radically change his approach to AI alignment advocacy 

Conditional on someone finally setting up a passable ball pit, someone urinates in it

Someone audibly meows while giving a presentation on a subject unrelated to cats

Someone makes another "Will I get rationalussy" market in complete sincerity and it resolves to YES

XMR is exchanged for goods and/or services

Someone verifiably has >=50k PnL on a real-money prediction market

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

All Tumbles loans due on June 8th and June 9th are paid back or delayed

At least three urine-in-ball-pit options on this market get N/Aed

Someone without a YES position on this option pees in a ball pit

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

Someone shows or mentions this very option during a talk or panel

Trump criticizes Putin on Truth Social during the conference

20-25 festiman pret bop (a man in his early 20s slaps a sandwich while wearing some kind of seasonal festival attire)

2 Contestants and a Host successfully ante into the pot for Nash Pit. (The game show begins.)

Somebody finds my (Quroe's) resume in a trash can and retrieves it. 

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears

 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.  You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.