Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

At least 5 people simultaneously chant "rationalussy"

At least four meetup regulars from my local rationalist group attend (including me)

someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

@jskf sings a song (full song, on stage) at the karaoke event

The conference's events average 15 minutes or more behind schedule, as judged by @Joshua

According to a poll asking if they enjoyed the conference with YES/NO/No opinion, a plurality of Manifold users respond YES

At least 350 people buy a ticket to attend at least one event in-person

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Arm-Wrestling tournament with at least 8 participants 

There is a scheduled orgy on every day of the conference 

Someone gives away 100+ folded paper cranes that have a message inside

 will take place June 6th to June 8th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the Manifest conference itself and not Less Online or Summer Camp.

I will attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Markets will generally resolve according to the common sense expectation of how they were intended, not on technicalities. For example, a temporary tattoo would not count for the crane tattoo option. Market manipulation is encouraged as long as it is pro-social.  You should also expect liberal use of N/A resolutions in ambiguous cases.