This is a poll meant to measure Manifold's opinions on a market without accounting for the bond rate. Choose the option with the most extreme odds at which you would bet that UFOs are not aliens, time travelers, demons, etc.

Assume you wouldn't have to lock the capital up and that your counterparty pays you in advance, but that you are publicly honor-bound to pay if you're wrong. 

For example, at 100-1 you get 1000 mana today and promise to pay 100,000 mana if you are proven wrong by mid-2028. 

Your counterparty has to put up at least 1000 mana, and you can't bet more than your net worth.

This poll is based on Eliezer Yudkowsky's 150-1 bet, as covered in this market: