How much solar power will the world install in 2025?

Question

Jenny Chase from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) projected (in Feb 2024) that 627 gigawatts (GW) of solar will be installed worldwide in 2025. How much will actually be installed?

BNEF will be the data source for consistency; if it's not available I'll use a credible source that closely aligns with the historical data below (e.g. 444 GW in 2023, 252 GW in 2022).

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 628 to 750 GW, followed by <= 627 GW and >900 GW are most likely. See the market for live updates (22 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).