At one point, someone half-jokingly asked Conflux if "The Market" was resolving according to the arithmetic mean or the geometric mean. So obviously, I have to see how it would play out if it really was based on the geometric mean.

This market will resolve YES if the time-weighted geometric mean of its probability is greater than 1/e ≈ 0.36788 after it closes. I will be using the exact probabilities, not the rounded values displayed by the market, since otherwise Team NO could easily win just by betting it down to 0.0% at any point in time. The value of 1/e was chosen because it is the geometric mean of all values between 0 and 1, and therefore, it is theoretically the most fair value to use (using 1/2 would give Team NO an advantage, since the geometric mean is smaller than the arithmetic mean). 