Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Question

Based on the resolution to this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/CamillePerrin/in-what-year-will-quantum-advantage?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu)Resolves YES if quantum advantage is demonstrated before 2030, according to the linked market (i.e., the linked market resolves to some number) and NO if it is not (i.e., the linked market resolves N/A).

If the linked market resolves N/A due to some edge case, rather than a definite case of quantum advantage not being demonstrated before 2030, this market will resolve N/A as well.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (13 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).