Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?

Question

Out of all the current justices on the Supreme Court, who will be the first to stop serving for any reason? This could be due to death, resignation/retirement, impeachment, term limits being imposed, incapacitation, or any other reason.

The justices are listed here in order of seniority. I will extend the closure date if no one has left the bench yet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Samuel Alito, followed by Clarence Thomas and Sonia Sotomayor are most likely. See the market for live updates (50 traders, as of Oct 16, 2026).