If Andy Burnham wins a by-election, will he become PM before the next GE?

Question

Resolves NA if Andy Burnham does not win a by-election before the next general election.

Resolved YES if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and becomes PM before the next general election.

Resolves NO if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and does not become PM before the next general election.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (13 traders, as of Jul 9, 2026).