Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Question

Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."

[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."

This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.

President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.

House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.

If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.

If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.

If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.

If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.

Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a hung chamber where the Associated Press cannot determine party control, the market will wait to resolve until control is established and one of the answer options becomes true.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, R Pres, D Senate, D House, followed by R President, R Senate, D House and R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta are most likely. See the market for live updates (352 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).