Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Question

The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.

https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/

Will a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.

Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026. The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.

Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances. If elections were cancelled or similar extraordinary events occurred, the market would resolve NO. The market resolves YES only if the ballot measure gets on a ballot and passes, NO in all other cases.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (451 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).