Manifold is mulling a new product, perhaps hosted at 

The site would feature one prediction market per dating profile that asks: "Who will I date for 6 months?"

In a first, we would leverage crowdsourced betting to surface the top matches for each person, based on real predictions of how long their relationship would last.

Super interested in what the Manifold community thinks about this proposal. Let's iterate on the design to make it as strong as possible.

At Manifest, Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)!

Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because:

People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun.

Prediction markets are an ideal solution to matchmaking

Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on Manifold’s 

Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool!

Encourage evolving community sophistication at matchmaking

 needs 1000 daily active users on average over 7 days.

An active user must perform at least one of the following:

- Bets (from people without profiles too, but has to be on 

I reserve the right to modify this / add more actions that I feel are primary.