We will think it was a mistake in retrospect

Someone will successfully find a partner from it that last at least 6 months

The comments section is more difficult to moderate than standard Manifold markets

It will - at some point in the future - either exist or not exist.

Its user base will be > % women than traditional Manifold Markets (n/a if data is non-existent)

Someone will marry a person they found using the app

Its Male:Female ratio will be above 66% on March 1st, 2024

I will find it easier to get good dates on the Manifold app than on Hinge

Someone on the manifold team will use it to enter a long term relationship

Its Male:Female ratio will be above 90% on March 1st, 2024

At least 3 of the first 10 reported serious relationships resulting from it will not be straight

It will be more popular than Manifold prediction markets

The MVP version of it will be done in a week, counting from the submission date of this option

It will prove Prediction Markets are correct but entrepreneurs like @JamesGrugett will continue to make the wrong decisions even if equipped with the best prediction tools

men with good profit records will be much higher in demand than men with negative profit

Over ten percent of women on the platform will be transgender on March 2024. 

Its [straight bio-male]:[straight bio-female] ratio will be above 66% (2:1) by March 2024

@toms will go on a date within 6 months of launch due to it

It will no longer be actively developed by March 2024

Over thirty percent of women on the platform will be transgender on March 1st, 2024

There will be a signup button on https://manifold.love that works; before November

A biological woman will sign up before November

On November 1st, 2023, I will not be able to find a series of button-clicks that leads to a 500 error.

If I create a profile, I will use the platform to get a date. (See comments)

Users will be able to 'boost' their profiles to highlight for community matchmaking (by 12/1/23)

A broadcasted reality dating show will reference Manifold Dating (by 2/1/24)

A market will resolve before December 1st

A market will resolve YES before June 1st

Someone will have a video chat or date with someone else on the platform, because of the platform, before December

It will be colloquially known as Manifuck (at least 25% of the time it’s casually referenced)

At least one AI user will use it to find a permanent partner

Will I be able to button-click my way into a 500 error on manifold.love right now?

There will be at least 1000 (active) profiles on March 30th

There will be at least 1500 (active) profiles on March 30th

It will just be a bunch of white guys (more than 80% white male users on March 1)

Aella will resolve a market YES by EOY 2024

It will be colloquially known as Manilove (at least 25% of the time it’s casually referenced)

Its Male:Female ratio will be above 69% on March 1st, 2024

Its Male:Female ratio will be above 75% on March 1st, 2024

It will be an independent app on iOS App Store before 2025

Manifold Dating website will be mostly defunct by the end of 2024

Manifold Dating website will be mostly defunct by the end of 2025

Please add your own answers! I will judge them all when appropriate!

This is the first "independent" multiple choice market!

See the proposal for "Manifold Dating" here:

https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-manifold-dating-reach-1000-dai#pSWjKL8lDZdwNvnoRL8x

12% chance. Manifold is mulling a new product, perhaps hosted at manifold.love, which takes aim at the dating market.

The site would feature one prediction market per dating profile that asks: "Who will I date for 6 months?"

In a first, we would leverage crowdsourced betting to surface the top matches for each person, based on real predictions of how long their relationship would last.

Read my full writeup here! Excerpts are below.

Super interested in what the Manifold community thinks about this proposal. Let's iterate on the design to make it as strong as possible.

At Manifest, Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)!

Thesis

Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because:

It is fun for traders, which means people will be motivated to bet and thus create accurate forecasts

Accurate forecasts of relationships are super valuable

Betting on love is fun

Aella’s and Shelvacu’s markets got a giant amount of traction (the biggest two at Manifest!)

Proof School’s original popular markets were betting on relationships continuing

Austin’s OG markets on getting a girlfriend and marrying Rachel were some of the site’s most popular

People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun.

Prediction markets are an ideal solution to matchmaking

Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on Manifold’s strong track record.

Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool!

How it might work

Users opt-in to create dating profiles

One main prediction market per person:

“Who will I date for 6 months?”

Free response market constrained to dating profiles on Manifold.

Resolves to next such person you date for 6 months

Subsidized liquidity (M2000?)

Created when you first fill out your profile.

Custom UI for browsing and betting on dating profiles

A table view with one row per person, standard info in columns, link to full profile (or opens in sidebar on desktop)

Select two people and bet on their relationship success

For each person, show the market’s top three matches (and let you bet on them directly from the table view)

Filtering, sorting, pinning potential matches via checkbox, leaving notes

Principles

Matchmaking is betting, and everyone can play matchmaker

Empower matchmakers

Give them the UI and tools to be effective

Public dating profiles with high information drive better crowdsourced decisions

Kickstart a flourishing ecosystem of fun secondary dating markets

The hope is that by doing the main matchmaking through markets, people will be more willing to create lots and lots of secondary markets on aspects of their dating lives. And they will be hilarious and super engaging

E.g. Will we kiss tonight? Where will we go for our date? Will our relationship last two weeks? Will he propose this year? How many children will we have by 2030?

Privacy where possible (Not 100% on this yet)

Dating profiles won’t by default be linkable and shareable. You can only find them in the table with everyone else

Allows people to feel freer to include more about themselves

Dating profiles will not by default be linked to your Manifold account. Can use a pseudonym

Encourage evolving community sophistication at matchmaking

Matchmakers will learn what questions to ask daters (comment section on dating profile)

Daters will fill in more information over time based on what is helpful

With DM’s (private 1:1 chat), traders can ask about character flaws too sensitive to broadcast publicly