 launched into early access on 24th February 2023. However, so far the game has recieved mixed reviews because it launched in a very buggy state, missing features that are already present in the original Kerbal Space Program.  Currently, the active playerbase of KSP 1 as reported by SteamDB is much higher than for KSP 2:

But, as KSP recieves ongoing patches, updates, and expansions, maybe this situation will turn around!  

Will KSP 2 have a larger active playerbase during early 2025, almost two years after the game's initial early-access release?

 which graphs the active playerbases of both games.  If KSP 2 has more active players than KSP 1 for the majority of datapoints in the 30 days preceeding Feb 24, 2025, then this market will resolve "YES".