Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?

Question

Resolves Yes if it passes, Resolves no if it is on the ballot and fails, and resolves n/a if it doesn’t appear on the ballot.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabillionairetax/will-california-have-a-billionaire-tax-referendum/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03

I will use Kalshi to decide if it is on the ballot.

I can resolve n/a early before the end of the year if it is impossible to appear on the ballot.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 51% chance (37 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).