If Keir Starmer is out as UK PM in 2026, will he…..?

Question

Out as PM means he is out as prime minister for any length of time, or announced his exit by 11.59pm 31 Dec 2026 London Time.

Resolves n/a if Keir Starmer is pm for all of 2026 and has not announced his exit by end of year.

Stay on= be an mp continuously until then. If he leaves parliament, will resolve no immediately, even if he wins a byelection before the next election.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Stay on as an mp until the date of the next UK general election?, followed by Stay on as an mp and contest a constituency in the next UK general election? and Be a cabinet minister on 1 April 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Jul 16, 2026).