Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?

Question

This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court.

If there is no court judgement but I am 99% confident that they have done fraud  (eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources). There will be an open survey with at least the options "Yes" and "Not enough information" . If 70% of people answer "Yes" then this market will resolve "Yes". This survey cannot be repeated for 3 months.

If the market doesn't resolve "Yes", it resolves "No" at close date.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (18 traders, as of Sep 10, 2025).