Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?

Question

This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome by the end of 2052.

Some signs that Kessler syndome has occurred:

The collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.

A short timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome. If it goes up over the course of years, I'm inclined to say that the space community is simply more tolerant of accepting losses due to chance and a higher debris environment.

There is damage to space infrastructure: If 50% of satellites launched after 2020  cannot be deorbited before they are destroyed, or are forced to deorbit early, that suggests Kessler syndrome. If this number is more like 1%, then not.

Resolution criteria copied from here.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 41% chance (40 traders, as of Jan 26, 2026).