Will we bring back a dinosaur before 2040?

Question

This market resolves to YES if, before 2040, someone brings back a dinosaur.

It does not have to have exactly the DNA of a prehistoric dinosaur, but it must be close enough that biologists and paleontologists would agree it's a "real dinosaur", not a completely new kind of animal that just looks similar to dinosaurs. (And no, it can't just be a bird.) Modifying a bird genome can count, as long as the resulting animal not only looks like a dinosaur, but also acts like one, can breed new ones, etc.

The dinosaur does not need to reach maturity, but it must survive for at least a day without life support equipment.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (60 traders, as of Jan 5, 2026).