Will the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths go through?

Question

Steve seemed to be trying to get out of the bet, but now they appear to have worked out a mutually agreeable bet. This market resolves YES if they end up having the debate as planned, and NO if they do not.

View the exact terms of the bet here, and the background here and here.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 85% chance (16 traders, as of Jan 12, 2026).