Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?

Question

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902

This market resolves YES if such an award is paid. (Including if the amount changes, as long as it's clearly still the same award.) This does not include his related offer of "a smaller award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing while still leaving it open."

It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.

If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.

For a market that includes his smaller awards, see here:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-scott-aaronson-ever-pay-out-an)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (14 traders, as of Oct 16, 2024).