Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Question

Quantum computing is advancing slowly but surely towards being able to factor large numbers. Much of modern encryption relies on large numbers being unfactorable. Research is being done into quantum-safe encryption, but it hasn't really caught on.

If quantum computing gets to the point where people start being scared of it, and there's a rush to transition to safer encryption, this market resolves YES. If everyone acts wisely and updates their encryption far in advance of a quantum computer that can break it, this market resolves NO.

Yes, this is very subjective. I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (30 traders, as of Dec 31, 2024).